Democrats are spending millions of dollars in the few competitive legislative districts hoping to take control of the Arizona Senate.

The Republicans are fighting to hold their slim one-member majorities in the House and Senate. Their prospects hinge on Legislative Districts 2, 4, 9, 13 and 16.

In the Senate, Republicans are expected to win at least 14 seats in non-competitive districts, and Democrats are somewhat secure in 11 districts. Democrats can only hope to get an even split or a single seat majority if everything goes their way.

“I would say that the House is guaranteed to go Republican,” said Republican consultant Barrett Marson. “Democrats have a better chance of at least an even split in a chamber in the Senate than the House.”

Democrats only need to take control of one chamber to shift the tone of politics. Last session, Sen. Paul Boyer, R-Glendale, and a few other moderates were able to force the Legislature into passing a bipartisan budget that included priorities from both sides of the aisle. Boyer and his allies are not returning to the Legislature next year, so the Democrats’ only hope for continued influence is in taking the House, Senate or Governor’s Office, which have all been in Republican control for years.

If the Senate Republicans lose their majority, only bipartisan bills will likely pass next year.

In putting up only 40 House candidates, the Democrats are focusing their energy on the Senate. After last year’s redistricting, only a handful of truly competitive districts emerged.

Democrats are outspending Republicans in every competitive race but one so far.

LEGISLATIVE DISTRICT 2

Legislative District 2 is in north Phoenix and leans to the right. In the 2020 election, about 52% of the district voted Republican and 48% voted Democrat with a margin under four points.

In LD2, Democrat Senate candidate Jeanne Casteen raised $225,753 and got $177,186 in independent expenditures. Republican groups spent $155,609 in independent expenditures against her.

Rep. Steve Kaiser, R-Phoenix, raised only $117,878 while Democratic independent expenditure groups spent $70,959 against him.

The lone Democrat candidate running for one of the district’s two House seats is Rep. Judy Schwiebert, D-Phoenix. She raised $235,779 and got $240,812 in independent expenditure spending, while Republican groups spent $42,131 against her.

Republican House candidates are Rep. Justin Wilmeth, R-Phoenix, and Christian Lamar. Wilmeth raised $103,557 and Lamar raised $47,218. The candidates received $167,921 and $65,804 in independent expenditure spending, respectively, and Democrat groups are targeting Lamar with $141,840 in spending against him. Wilmeth received $79,807 in spending against him.

LEGISLATIVE DISTRICT 4

Legislative District 4 shares a border with LD2 and is a similar demographic and breakdown of party affiliation. The north Phoenix district also encompasses part of Paradise Valley and is slightly more competitive. In 2020, 51.7% of the district voted Republican and 48.3% voted Democrat. The vote spread was 3.4%.

The LD4 Senate race is considered the most competitive in the state. Incumbent Sen. Nancy Barto, R-Phoenix, is facing fellow incumbent Sen. Christine Marsh, D-Phoenix. Barto wrote the state’s 15-week abortion ban bill that passed in the last session in a year where abortion is a hot button topic.

Democrat consultant Steven Slugocki said that abortion rights are a priority in District 4 and give Marsh an edge. “I hear from my neighbors, I heard from friends that she [Barto] is too extreme for this district,” Slugocki said. “That is something I’m hearing constantly from people in the area when I’m knocking doors that education and abortion are two of the big issues.”

As of October 14, Marsh raised more than $353,000 not including $259,545 spent on her behalf in independent expenditures. Republican groups only spent $1,322 against Marsh.

Barto raised $307,031 and benefits from $62,754 in independent expenditure spending. But Democrats spent $410,213 against her.

Some of that money is going to attack ads. Barto’s supporters set up a website against Marsh.

In the House, Democrats are using the same strategy as LD2 by running one candidate, Laura Terech. She raised $240,098 and has $88,988 in independent expenditure spending for her. Republican groups spent only $5,028 against Terech.

Terech faces Republican candidates Matt Gress and Maria Syms. Gress is the director of Gov. Doug Ducey’s Office of Strategic Planning and Budgeting and has raised $429,090 while receiving $388,314 in independent expenditure spending. He’s the only Republican legislative candidate outraising the Democrats. Syms raised $117,210, but only has $14,873 in independent expenditure spending for her.

Democrat groups are campaigning almost exclusively against Gress in the district, spending $83,215 against him and only $587 against Syms.

LEGISLATIVE DISTRICT 9

This Mesa district became far more competitive in the last redistricting cycle, and moderate incumbent Republican Sen. Tyler Pace, R-Mesa, lost to his Trump-endorsed Republican opponent Robert Scantlebury in the primary.

The district went 48.7% for Republicans in 2020 and 51.3% for Democrats. The margin is 2.6% and Democrats are running hard on abortion.

Scantlebury faces Democrat Eva Burch, and she’s far out-raising him. Burch took in $241,114 and received $212,392 in independent expenditure spending. Republican groups spent $34,893 against her. She, Marsh, Cindy Hans and Jeanne Casteen are targeted in a series of ads from a Republican group.

Scantlebury raised $81,832, received $225,713, and is targeted by $119,697 in independent expenditure spending against him.

Since House incumbents ran for other offices, LD9 will have two new representatives in the House and both parties are running two candidates.

Democrats are running Lorena Austin and Seth Blattman. Austin raised $196,822 while receiving $181,436 in independent expenditure spending. Blattman raised $148,145 and received $195,750. Republican groups are spending nearly equal amounts against the two – $20,703 against Austin and $20,734 against Blattman.

The Republican candidates include Mary Ann Mendoza and Kathy Pearce, the sister of SB1070 sponsor Russell Pearce. Mendoza raised $30,297 and received $22,616 in independent expenditure spending while Pearce raised $24,275 and received $55,289 in spending. Democrats are campaigning against these two candidates more aggressively than Republicans, spending $126,141 against Mendoza and 117,293 against Pearce.

LEGISLATIVE DISTRICT 13

Based on District 13’s 2020 voting record, it is the most competitive this year. In 2020, 49.22% of voters in the Chandler, Gilbert district voted Democrat and 50.78% of Republicans with a margin of 1.56%.

Incumbent Sen. J.D. Mesnard, R-Chandler, is challenged by newcomer Cindy Hans.

Hans raised slightly less than Mesnard, but Democrats are hammering him with attacks.

Mesnard raised $175,357 and received $217,356. in independent expenditure spending. Democrats spent $148,646 against him. Mesnard said in a text that he believes the Democrats are focusing on flipping the Senate.

Hans raised $145,480 and received $200,151 in spending. Republicans spent just $10,017 in expenditures against her.

The House race also features the single-shot strategy from Democrats with Rep. Jennifer Pawlik as the only candidate running against her two Republican opponents, Liz Harris and Julie Willoughby.

Pawlik raised $170,392 and received $384,040 in independent expenditure spending. Republicans spent $32,671 against her.

Harris raised $68,285 and received $53,220 in spending. Willoughby raised $80,996 and received $29,689 in expenditures. Democrats spent much more against Harris than Willoughby — $148,802 to $28,164.

LEGISLATIVE DISTRICT 16

Legislative District 16 leans Republican and isn’t the focus of either party in terms of spending, but there is still a chance for Democrats in the House race.

The district is a large semi-rural county and has two Republican incumbents running for their seats, Sen. T.J. Shope, R-Coolidge, and Rep. Teresa Martinez, R-Casa Grande. The House race includes another Republican; Rob Hudelson. The Senate and House Democrat candidates are newcomers Taylor Kerby and Keith Seaman.

In a Republican-leaning district with two incumbents, the Democrats running should be at a disadvantage. However, Seaman got more votes than Martinez in the primary. If things play out the same way in general, she will lose her seat and the district will be represented by both parties in the House. Shope said that could be the case.

LEGISLATIVE DISTRICT 22

Legislative District 22’s Senate seat started out in safe Democrat control, but the unopposed primary winner Rep. Diego Espinoza, D-Tolleson, withdrew to take another job. There are now 12 write-in candidates vying for the empty seat in the blue Phoenix-Avondale district. Six of the write-in candidates are Republicans, one is an independent and five are Democrats.

The Legislative District 22 Democrats put their support behind newcomer Eva Diaz but haven’t invested much into her campaign. Republicans are supporting Steve Robinson in the race and spent more than $56,000 in independent expenditures on his campaign. The flyers and ads Republicans are running for Robinson omit his party affiliation, so, it’s possible that voters in the heavily Democratic district may unwittingly elect a Republican.