The race for the Legislative District 9 Senate seat is a rematch between former police officer Robert Scantlebury, a Republican, and incumbent Sen. Eva Burch, D-Mesa, but  a GOP consultant said the competitive district will favor the Democrat candidate who garnered national attention during the recent legislative session. 

Burch, a newcomer at the time, defeated her Republican challenger in 2022. Scantlebury, a former Mesa police officer, lost by more than 3,000 votes.

His bid for the seat comes on heels of a legislative session where Burch garnered national attention for sharing her experience with needing an abortion due to a nonviable pregnancy. 

Burch played a key role during the 2024 legislative session in the Democrats’ effort to repeal the state’s near-total ban on abortion that would become state law after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Roe v. Wade was no longer valid. 

Burch is a nurse who has focused on health care related issues since taking office, and said her experience as a nurse has highlighted issues that are close to her. 

If she is re-elected to the Senate, Burch said one of the first bills she plans to reintroduce would be one to lower the cost of prescription medications for Arizonans, widening the scope to include those who are not Medicare patients. 

“Health care expenses are certainly high on the list of what people are paying for that keep them from being able to meet the needs of their families,” Burch said. 

She said health care affordability is part of the bigger issue of the cost of living in Arizona. Housing cost is another high priority issue in her district, which covers much of east and central Mesa, and finding permanent solutions will require bipartisanship, she said. 

“There’s never going to be a bill that specifies everyone and all the stakeholders, so if we want to get them (housing-related bills) across the finish line, we need to have the right leadership in place in the House and the Senate that will not obstruct the legislation for arbitrary reasons,” Burch said. 

Reigning in the Empowerment Scholarship Accounts program would be another step to take to improve Arizona’s economy, Burch said. An enrollment cap — with some exceptions — would help balance the state’s budget and allow more spending in public education, she said. 

As the incumbent prepares for her general election rematch with Scantlebury, her image has become closely tied to the pro-choice movement, particularly through her backing of the proposed Arizona Abortion Access Act, which seeks to legalize abortions up to fetal viability in most cases. 

After making national headlines for sharing her abortion story on the Senate floor, Burch said she is feeling “even more passionate” as she knocks on doors and hears from constituents who share similar experiences. 

However, she warned that voter approval of the pro-abortion proposition in November should not be the only thing motivating Arizonans at the ballot box. 

“I can’t stress enough how important it is that we have pro-choice candidates in the Legislature, and we have pro-choice judges, because the constitutional amendment is not going to be the end of the story in Arizona,” Burch said. 

On the other hand, Scantlebury’s campaign has focused on border security, public safety, school choice and lowering the cost of living. The Republican candidate has taken a similar approach in this campaign as he did two years ago. 

When it comes to housing affordability, Scantlebury wants to remove regulatory guardrails for homeowners, according to his campaign website. 

“Neighborhoods are often harmed by the presence of AirBnBs or homes that are converted to businesses,” Scantlebury’s campaign website reads. “With the right regulatory and economic policies, we will put ourselves, our children, and our grandchildren in a better position to succeed.”

Scantlebury had the endorsement of current U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake during the 2022 election cycle, and has the backing of the Homebuilder’s Association and the Mesa Police Association. 

His bid to unseat Burch has brought in $10,000 in donations from the Freedom Club Political Action Committee, but his on-hand balance is slim in comparison to the incumbent. Scantlebury had $29,931 on hand, as of pre-primary campaign finance reports, while Burch held a significant lead with $130,081 on hand. 

GOP consultant Chuck Coughlin said Scantlebury’s luck in the race is slim to none. “It’s not possible,” he said, noting that the competitive district has turned even more blue since the 2022 election cycle. 

Coughlin said the presidential election will increase turnout from young voters, further stacking the odds against Scantlebury in the district that favors Democrat candidates by 2.6%, according to the Independent Redistricting Commission. 

Though the district is considered highly competitive, Scantlebury does not have the same appeal that a more moderate GOP candidate could, he said. 

“I think the people representing that district right now are reflective of what that district is,” Coughlin said. “Republicans keep running MAGA-esque candidates that can’t appeal to that district, I just don’t see it.” 

Scantlebury did not respond to multiple requests from the Arizona Capitol Times for an interview prior to deadline.