A Democratic state representative attempting to switch chambers in Legislative District 2 has jumped to an early lead after initial election results Tuesday night. 

Rep. Judy Schwiebert, D-Phoenix, leads Sen. Shawnna Bolick, R-Phoenix, at about 10:20 p.m. with 51% of votes over Bolick’s 47.4%.

Green Party candidate Dennis Pugsley has received 1.6% of votes. 

With a Republican 16-14 majority in the Senate, the LD2 Senate race is one of the most decisive legislative races in determining which party has control of the Senate. 

Democrats have heavily focused on the district since Bolick was appointed. Schwiebert previously told The Arizona Capitol Times she decided to run for Senate rather than seek re-election in the House because Democrats view the seat as “uniquely vulnerable,” and she was asked by her party to try and switch chambers. 

Schwiebert was first elected to the House alongside Bolick in 2020. Both legislators were elected in LD20, which comprised much of the area that LD2 now encompasses before the state was redistricted. 

In that election, Schwiebert got about 1% more votes than Bolick. She then was re-elected to the House in 2022 and received the most votes again in the 2022 LD2 House race. 

Bolick was first elected to the House in 2018, and she served until 2022, when she lost the Republican primary for the Secretary of State race nomination. After former Sen. Steve Kaiser resigned in 2022, Bolick was appointed to replace him. 

Republicans hold a numbers advantage in the district. Republicans have about 10,000 more registered voters than Democrats in the district, and the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission gives GOP candidates nearly a 4% advantage in vote spread between Democratic and Republican candidates.