The GOP had several notable victories in Arizona for the 2024 Election. However, Republicans suffered one high-profile loss, with Ruben Gallego winning the Senate seat. With Trump’s victory in Arizona, GOP senate contender Kari Lake would have had a shot at the Senate seat. 

Unfortunately for one of MAGA’s biggest cheerleaders, the odds were against her.

“Trump in heels” learned little from her 2022 Gubernatorial loss to Katie Hobbs. In 2024, Lake made matters worse by marring her campaign with new mistakes. She not only was tone deaf to the political will of moderates but also managed to turn off some Republican voters. Her campaign suffered from muddy messaging, poor optics, and limited appeal.

Lake’s 2024 bid for the Senate leaves many wondering if she is a flip-flopper. She has been consistent on issues such as immigration and border enforcement since 2022. But one of her biggest gaffs was back-peddling on abortion. 

Lake reversed course on the issue of abortion, leaping from “ultimate sin” to denouncing enforcement of the 1864 ban in April. Lake doesn’t do herself any favors by trying to pander to her conservative base by changing her position once again! Days later, panning county sheriffs for not enforcing the ban.

Being wishy-washy during an election with an abortion measure on the ballot is political suicide.  Arizona voters didn’t fall for this untactful sophistry. Lake’s first flip-flop was a sour note for her conservative base, leaving pro-life advocates such as Pastor Luke Pierson wondering, “Who do we count on?”

Her second shift on the issue was damage control to appease her base. Is Lake just trying to pander to the public? Her radical swings on this issue make it difficult to tell.

 Her opponent, Ruben Gallego,  took a more moderate position on border security.  Gallego shifting to the center and staying there was an easier feat than Lake moving to the middle on abortion. It is possible to rebound from calling the border wall  “dumb” and “stupid,”  but not equating abortion with blasphemy. 

Beyond playing musical chairs on abortion, she also suffered from a shaky public image. Despite recommendations for Lake to drop these claims and focus on “unifying subjects, such as inflation and border security,” she continued to promote the conspiracy theory that the 2022 election was stolen. Throughout her campaign, she continued to contest the results.

Her fixation on election fraud claims didn’t bode well with voters. One Trump supporter viewed  her complaints as “incessant whining” and another referred to her as a “nutjob.”

Overall, she lacked Trump’s mojo and likeability. As one analyst put it, “Trump is a unicorn,” and it’s difficult to replicate his formula for political success. Lake could have been likable if she relied on Trump’s secret weapon, humor. After all, the MAGA movement is populism, the best way to break the ice is to be entertaining.

When Lake had opportunities to poke fun at Gallego, she opted for cruelty instead of jokes. Lake’s comments about Gallego’s father were cheap shots that made her look harsh. In the words of GOP consultant Marcus Dell’Artino, “She lacked the ‘I want to have a beer with candidate’ quality” among voters.

If the other flaws of Lake’s campaign weren’t enough, her campaign was more targeted towards her base with incendiary rhetoric and “scorched earth tactics.” She failed to craft a campaign appealing to moderates, completely ignoring that Arizona is a state with many independent voters.

This left a wide opening for Gallego to swoop in and grab the “anti-Trump Republicans”, moderates, and “Latinos”. 

He used his working-class background and military service to win the hearts and minds of McCain Republicans and “patriotic” Latino voters. Lake couldn’t even convincingly make peace with the moderate Republicans she attacked in 2022.

I don’t blame GOP leadership for not spending a dime on Lake’s campaign because it would have been a losing bet. The 2024 election proves that she didn’t learn her lesson from 2022.  Avoiding unclear policy positions, veering away from fostering an erratic public image, and aiming for the moderate vote could help you win in Arizona. 

Peter Clark is an Arizona-based writer. His work has been published by AzCentral, AZ Capitol Times, FEE, AIER,  Inside Sources, Tobacco Reporter & RealClear Markets.