When the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) replaced NAFTA in 2020, it did more than modernize a landmark yet outdated agreement. It established the framework for more than $1.8 trillion in annual trade across North America as recently as 2024. That trade supports millions of jobs in the United States, thousands of them here in Arizona. Now, as the 2026 renewal decision approaches, the certainty provided by USMCA is on the line.

For Arizona, the stakes could not be higher. Mexico is our No. 1 trading partner and Canada is No. 2. From aerospace and electronics to copper, mining products, citrus and lettuce, nearly a third of Arizona’s total exports head to those two markets. In 2024 alone, Arizona exported about $9 billion in goods to Mexico and another $3 billion to Canada. These flows of trade represent paychecks for U.S. workers, revenue for businesses and opportunities for communities statewide.

Anyone watching the trucks line up at the Nogales-Mariposa Port of Entry knows how deeply our economy depends on cross-border commerce. The winter produce that fills U.S. grocery store shelves often comes through Nogales, while Arizona’s manufacturers export the parts and equipment used in everything from automobiles to jet engines. In Tucson, aerospace companies rely on supply chains that stretch across the border. In the East Valley, technology startups depend on USMCA’s digital trade provisions to keep their products moving efficiently. Without the agreement, many of these goods would face tariffs, delays or unpredictable rules that would harm competitiveness.

The agreement also provides something less visible but equally important: predictability. More than 7,000 Arizona companies exported goods in 2024, with the overwhelming majority small or mid-sized firms. These are not multinational giants backed by teams of lawyers and trade experts. They are local entrepreneurs who depend on USMCA to keep rules clear and markets open. Their ability to hire, expand and invest depends on certainty.

The public comment period on USMCA renewal is now open. Until Nov. 1, individuals, companies and organizations can submit their views to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. There will also be a public hearing on Nov. 17 in Washington, D.C. Arizona voices need to be heard. Policymakers want to know how trade agreements affect real communities. Whether your business relies on exporting to Mexico or Canada, your farm depends on tariff protections or your workers benefit from integrated supply chains, you must share your story now. 

Should the agreement unravel, Arizona would feel the shock first. Tariffs would rise, supply chains would fray and investment could shift elsewhere. The consequences would be fewer jobs, higher prices and slower growth. Preserving USMCA is not about politics. It is about protecting the backbone of Arizona’s economy and ensuring that families from Nogales to Phoenix to Flagstaff continue to benefit from strong cross-border ties.

At the national level, USMCA remains one of the few trade agreements that reflects the realities of today’s economy. It covers digital trade, labor protections and sustainable practices. It is a model for how trade can support good jobs, environmental responsibility and shared prosperity. USMCA is more than a treaty on paper. It is the system that powers businesses, supports jobs, strengthens supply chains and connects communities across North America. Weakening it would not only harm Arizona but also the entire United States.

Arizona’s future depends on certainty, not disruption. As the renewal decision approaches, our voices must be clear. We should continue to build on USMCA, not dismantle it.

Steven Zylstra is president and CEO of the Arizona Technology Council & SciTech Institute. 

Carol Colombo is managing member of Fedelta Partners and the AzDEC chairwoman.