In two swing districts of the state with bipartisan representation, Republicans and Democrats are seeking legislative majorities by completely flipping districts they have voter advantage in.

Republicans are heavily focusing on winning all three seats in Legislative District 16, which covers a small part of south Maricopa County, Pinal County, and Pima County. With a 3.6% vote spread favoring Republicans, they are attempting to take the House seat occupied by Rep. Keith Seaman, D-Casa Grande.

Seaman, the only Democrat running for the House in the district as a single-shot candidate, won in 2022 by just over half a percent of votes, finishing ahead of Republican Rob Hudelson by more than 600 votes. 

“We give (voters) something new to think about and something to vote for,” Seaman said.

House Majority Whip Teresa Martinez, R-Casa Grande, and Republican Chris Lopez are running against Seaman.

Martinez is a strong incumbent as one of the leaders of the House GOP caucus. She got the most votes in the 2022 House race and finished with more than 4% of votes ahead of Seaman. 

Lopez is a small business owner in Casa Grande running on the same ticket as Martinez and Sen. T.J. Shope, R-Coolidge.

Lopez lists the border, increasing teacher pay, and defending the state’s Empowerment Scholarship Account program as some of his top issues on his campaign website. He did not respond to an interview request from The Arizona Capitol Times.

He specifically cites Democrats not supporting a bill that would have increased teacher pay during the 2023 legislative session. The measure, House Bill 2800, proposed to give Arizona teachers a $10,000 raise over a two-year period but Democrats because the bill offered a one-time funding increase and it didn’t include other classroom support staff. 

Seaman said increasing pay for school staff was one of his top priorities, but he wanted to ensure the legislature finds an equitable solution. 

“We’re seeing teachers leaving and the number one reason they leave the schools, in the middle of the year too, is because they can’t live on those salaries and they have too many kids in the room. They may not have a paraprofessional,” Seaman said. 

Republicans are targeting Seaman heavily in an attempt to get some breathing room with their one-seat majority in the House. The Republican State Leadership Committee recently begun running ads in the district as part of its “Left’s Most Wanted” campaign, attacking Seaman for voting against SB1027 in 2023, which would have increased the penalties to fentanyl manufacturers or dealers if the drug they transferred caused injury to a minor. 

Gov. Katie Hobbs vetoed the bill and wrote in her veto measure that she felt it undermined the state’s “Good Samaritan Law.” Other Democrats expressed concerns that the bill would prevent people from contacting emergency services in overdose situations out of fears they would be criminally charged. 

“Arizonans deserve to have legislators who will protect their best interests and not obstruct a commonsense agenda,” RSLC spokesperson Stephanie Rivera said in a statement about the committee’s ad campaign. 

Republican consultant Tyler Montague said picking up both seats in LD16 would be significant for the GOP because it might offset a loss in another district. 

“If they’re going to cling to the legislature, they have to sneak a seat or two,” Montague said.

One such district could be Legislative District 23, where incumbent Rep. Michele Pena, R-Yuma, is running as the Republican single shot candidate in a district that the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission has 17% vote spread favoring Democrats and is considered a non-competitive district. 

Despite the commission’s analysis, Pena was able to pick up a win for the GOP that gave Republicans a majority in the House when she beat Democrat Jesus Lugo Jr. by more than 4% of votes in 2022. 

Even before Pena’s win, parts of the district were represented by former Republican state Rep. Joel John before the state was redistricted. 

LD23 is in the southeast region of the state and covers Maricopa County, Pima County, Pinal County and Yuma County. Its House top vote getter in 2022 was Rep. Mariana Sandoval, D-Goodyear, who received about 2.5% more votes than Pena. 

Pena’s challenger is Democrat Matias Rosales, a San Luis city councilman who’s served on the council for the last 12 years. 

Rosales was unavailable for comment before the Arizona Capitol Times deadline but recently criticized Pena on a Sept. 5 Clean Elections Commission discussion for voting in support of Prop. 138, a ballot referral that would allow employers to pay tipped workers up to 25% less than the minimum hourly wage if the employer can guarantee a worker’s tips are at least $2 more than the minimum wage hourly earnings. 

“We need to work to expand economic opportunities here in our state and create good paying jobs,” Rosales said.

Pena didn’t respond to the Arizona Capitol Times interview request. She lists the state’s ESA program as one of her top priorities. In 2023, she also sponsored legislation to extend the expiration date for chicken eggs, which she says on her website have created obstacles for rural communities and farmers.

Rep. Alexander Kolodin, R-Scottsdale, attempted to help Pena defend her seat on Wednesday by sharing a complaint San Luis Mayor Nieves Riedel had previously filed with Attorney General Kris Mayes accusing Rosales of mishandling public funds for Greater Yuma Port Authority on social media. 

Rosales has been a board member of the authority for the last decade and Riedel accused Rosales of conflict of interest and public monies violations by influencing the authority into renting office space from his real estate firm Realty One.

The complaint was submitted to the attorney general’s office on June 2, 2023. Attorney General Communications Director Richie Taylor confirmed to the Arizona Capitol Times that Mayes’ office investigated and found no violations on Feb. 28. 

Despite no violations, Kolodin still shared the complaint less than a month away from the Nov. 5 general election in a race that will be pivotal in deciding which party controls the House. 

“Though Mr. Rosales’ conduct may constitute a felony … he, like every American, is entitled to the presumption of innocence,” Kolodin wrote in his post on X. “Regardless, however, of whether his actions rise to the level of criminal conduct, voters should carefully weigh whether his conflicts of interests allow him to faithfully serve the best interests of the people.”