In Legislative District 16, a Republican incumbent is defending his Senate seat from a first-time candidate who is the daughter of a longtime Democrat state representative.

The Senate seat is seen as an opportunity for Democrats, who hope to flip the majority in both chambers by targeting competitive districts.

LD16 falls in the “competitive” category, according to the Independent Redistricting Commission, but leans 4.2% in favor of Republican candidates. Voter registration numbers from the primary election showed Republicans have an edge of 6,407 voters over Democrats in the district, meaning the general election could be a tight race.

The district, which encompasses parts of Pima and Pinal counties, is currently represented by Sen. T.J. Shope, R-Coolidge. Democrat Stacey Seaman — the daughter of Rep. Keith Seaman, D-Casa Grande — is running against Shope in hopes of making her debut in the Legislature. 

Shope served four terms in the House before being elected to the Senate. He has served as the pro tempore in both chambers. 

Seaman is an educator who said she was eyeing a spot in legislative office, but wanted to finish her PhD program before running for a seat. She said her mind was changed once the Democrat Party asked her to run alongside her dad for the Senate spot in the district. 

“I already had it in the back of my mind that, when my dad left, maybe I would run for that seat,” Seaman said. “So when I was approached, my first answer was, oh, man, I really don’t think I can. We kept getting closer to the deadline, and I just realized it needed to be me. I had that realization that I can put my dissertation on hold, we can’t put any kind of democracy on hold.”

Seaman’s father is also a teacher, and her mother is a health care worker. Being raised by both of them, Seaman said, “Everything else just kind of tends to fall in line politically.” However, she said she and her father do disagree on policy sometimes, but they are on the same page “for the most part.” 

The lack of funding for public education is a huge issue in the district, Seaman said, especially in rural areas. Further, Seaman said the passage of water policy is critical, especially given the area’s agricultural aspects. 

“Making sure that we are using our water supply correctly and that we have the water we need to continue to grow is hugely important,” Seaman said. “That cannot be understated for our district.” 

Shope said he has a track record of advocating for infrastructure development in the district. Specifically, he cited the funding for the expansion of Interstate 10 between Coolidge and the metropolitan Phoenix area. 

“Seventy percent of the people who were employed for a living drive to Phoenix on a daily basis, so it’s going to be life-changing,” Shope said. 

If he is re-elected, Shope said he will continue to advocate for infrastructure development in the district. 

Notably, Shope was one of the two Republicans in the Senate who voted with Democrats to repeal a near-total abortion ban. Seaman is pro-choice and said the status of reproductive rights in the state played a huge role in motivating her to run for office.

Post-primary campaign finance reports showed Seaman in the lead with fundraising and spending. She raised $87,588 and spent $73,652 since the primary, while Shope garnered $42,879 and spent $68,656. However, Shope has the bigger budget in the final stretch ahead of the general election, with $88,545 on hand, while Seaman ended the period with $53,515 left to spend. This contrasts with other general election races, where Democrat candidates in most of the other competitive districts for state Senate have outraised their Republican opponents. 

Comparably, in LD17 — a less competitive district which favors Republican candidates by 9%, according to the Independent Redistricting Commission — Democrat LD17 Senate Candidate John McLean brought in over $275,599.48 since the primary election, while his GOP opponent Vince Leach raised $158,605. 

GOP consultant Barrett Marson said, “Shope will win this race hands down.” 

“TJ Shope is an institution in Pinal County,” Marson said. “Any money thrown out there by Democrats and its aligned groups is wasting cash.” 

Nonetheless, Seaman said she is confident heading toward the general election, despite facing an incumbent. 

“Coming up against a really well-established incumbent like that can always be daunting,” Seaman said. “But what I’ve noticed is while knocking on doors and talking to people, they understand the issues that are going on, and he’s the person from our district who has been here for so long. Why are we still having these issues?” 

Shope said he is “feeling good” as the election approaches, recalling g the 11% he defeated Democrat candidate Taylor Kerby by in 2022. 

“Do I believe that I will duplicate that, or improve on it? No, I don’t know if that is realistic,” Shope said. “I hope to have a comfortable enough margin, or at least an idea on election night so I can sleep.”