This election cycle saw both parties focusing heavily on trying to add seats to their caucuses in both chambers of the Legislature and some races could be headed toward recounts with narrow margins between the candidates. 

Democrats jumped to early leads in many swing district races on election night, but Republicans have chipped away or taken the lead in some races throughout the week as more ballots were counted. 

The election results are unofficial from the Secretary of State’s Office and could change, but if results as of Nov. 7 stand, Republicans would hold a 16-14 majority in the Senate and a 32-28 majority in the House, maintaining their lead in the upper chamber and adding one seat in the lower chamber. 

“It’s a tale of where the votes are coming from,” said Paul Bentz, a pollster with HighGround Public Affairs Consultants. “As metro Phoenix gets more progressive leaning … we see a pretty significant uptick in conservative voting in some of the outer portions of the Valley and certainly a growing red vote in Pinal and Yavapai County.”

In Legislative District 16, which consists of Pinal County, Pima County and Maricopa County, single-shot candidate Rep. Keith Seaman, D-Casa Grande, was trailing his House race to Republican Chris Lopez and Rep. Teresa Martinez, R-Casa Grande, by Bov. 7. Seaman was down by about 3% to Lopez for the second House seat in the district. 

“It certainly looks like bad news for Seaman,” Bentz said. 

Republicans also took leads in the Legislative District 4 and Legislative District 2 Senate races, which both were key factors in Senate control. 

In LD2, Sen. Shawnna Bolick, R-Phoenix, was leading Rep. Judy Schwiebert, D-Phoenix, by nearly 3%. Republican Carnie Werner established a near 1.5% lead over Sen. Christine Marsh, D-Phoenix.

But Democrats have maintained leads in both the Senate and House race in Legislative District 17, which both would be pickups if those leads hold. 

Democrat John McLean led Republican Vince Leach, who is seeking a return to the Senate, by just under 1% of votes in the district on Nov. 7.

McLean’s House running mate, Kevin Volk, led Republican incumbent Reps. Rachel Jones, R-Tucson; and Cory McGarr, R-Tucson, on Nov. 7. Volk held a near 3% lead over Jones and a 4% lead over McGarr. 

The lost seat in the House for Democrats would be from Legislative District 13, if results stand. Rep. Julie Willoughby, R-Chandler, had over a 1.5% lead over Democrat Brandy Reese and Republican Jeff Weninger had nearly a 2% lead over Reese. That district’s House representation is currently split between Willoughby and Rep. Jennifer Pawlik, D-Chandler.

Noble Predictive Insights CEO Mike Noble said Republican Donald Trump’s overperformance in the presidential race compared to what many pollsters had him at has given a boost to other Republicans down ballot.

“If (Kamala) Harris was ahead by one or something like that, I think these legislative races would look very different,” Noble said. “The folks down ticket. They’re not defined and typically not known. A lot of state legislators like to believe they are but for the average voter, maybe not as much.”

Some races were very narrow. Rep. Matt Gress, R-Phoenix, got some breathing room and led the second place vote getter, Democrat Kelli Butler, by about 2% in LD4. Butler led Republican Pamela Carter by .07%.

In 2022, Republican Gov. Doug Ducey signed a law that changed the voter recount threshold from a tenth of a percent to half of a percent. 

The Legislative District 9 House race saw a similar result to the LD4 race with two Democrats defending their seats. Rep. Lorena Austin, D-Mesa, held about a 1.5% lead over the second-place leader Rep. Seth Blattman, D-Mesa. 

Blattman led both GOP candidates Mary Ann Mendoza and Kylie Barber by just over .30% each. 

In the event of a recount, it must occur after a county canvasses election results, which is Nov. 21.

Republicans have also maintained a strong hold in Legislative District 23 with Rep. Michele Pena, R-Yuma. She leads all vote getters despite the district having a Democratic lean by nearly 17%, according to the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission. 

Pena led Rep. Mariana Sandoval, D-Goodyear, in the district’s House race by more than 3%, and had a 5% lead over Democrat Matias Rosales. 

“That district, even though it was drawn as a heavy lean ‘D,’ it’s got a big portion of Maricopa County that’s had a bunch of new red tile spots that have popped up,” said GOP consultant Doug Cole. 

Sen. Brian Ferdnandez, D-Yuma, led his Republican opponent Michelle Altherr in the district by just under 2% of votes. In 2022, he had a much more comfortable margin of victory and beat Republican Gary Garcia Snyder by more than 7%.