Kari Lake lost her second statewide election in two consecutive election cycles, following a Senate race call for Congressman Ruben Gallego Monday night, leaving the question of how, or if, she will make another run for public office. 

Lake served as the exception to sweeping Republican success up-and-down the ballot. Consultants say a future, successful campaign is not completely out of the question but could prove difficult given key electoral failings in 2024. 

“She lost in a year where we’ve seen many Republicans down ballot do exceptionally well and over perform, particularly in swing areas,” Paul Bentz, pollster for HighGround Public Affairs said. “It was a very Republican year, with the exception of Lake, who was on the outside looking in.” 

Gallego came out the gate on election night ahead of Lake by about 118,000, but back-and-forth in ballot drops slimmed down his lead to less than 33,000 votes, then later brought the vote difference back to 72,626 after another round of results from Maricopa County. 

According to the Associated Press, the call came after determining that in order to prevail, Lake would have had to win 70% of the 181,000 remaining uncounted ballots, a near impossibility given lackluster vote splits for Lake in Maricopa and Pima counties. 

On X, Lake did not acknowledge her defeat, but the Kari Lake War Room account lambasted the fact Lake was outspent by Gallego and “abandoned” by the Senate Leadership Fund, which spent $0 in support of Lake, per campaign finance records. 

Lake has yet to concede. A spokesman for Lake’s campaign did not respond to an inquiry on Lake’s concession, or alternatively, any potential legal action she was considering in light of her loss.  

But the race call, and Lake’s prior unsuccessful attempt to take the governor’s office, does leave a specter of what looms in Lake’s political future. 

Consultants speculated Lake could see success in conservative media, potentially secure some position in President-elect Donald Trump’s administration and floated a rumor that Lake may go after the state party chair position, currently filled by Gina Swoboda. 

A Lake spokesperson did not respond to requests for comment on Lake’s future plans. 

As for any position in the Trump administration, Caroline Leavitt, Trump-Vance transition spokeswoman, said in a statement, “Trump is making decisions on who will serve in his second administration. Those decisions will be announced when they are made.” 

In terms of aspirations for future elections, Bentz noted Lake’s difficulty in capturing Maricopa County this election cycle could spell trouble. 

“We see up and down ballot that Republicans did incredibly well, lesser known Republicans did incredibly well in Maricopa County,” Bentz said. “She is still losing Maricopa County. She’s got a challenge in our most populous region. It would take a massive amount of rehabilitation for her to be electable in Maricopa County.” 

Bentz added her lag behind Trump proved a problem too. Trump successfully pulled congressional and legislative candidates over the finish line but left Lake in the lurch. 

But her most recent election loss, and her gubernatorial loss are not necessarily a death knell. 

“You just never can count these types of candidates out when there’s something about campaigning that is very attractive to individuals like her,” Bentz said. “Never say never.”

Jason Rose, consultant and president of Rose+Allyn Public and Online Relations, said he thought another bid for office was not out of the question for Lake either but noted a more disciplined approach to be crucial going forward. 

“Kari Lake is a talented individual, but she cannot invoke that self control,” Rose said. “It’s not like she’s going to alienate her base. She could just be a saner, more sublime person.” 

Rose said he could see Lake going for Secretary of State, given her affinity for elections. “There’s somewhat of a nexus there,” he said. “And if anyone says she can’t win it, look at the Maricopa County Recorder’s race.” 

He floated the possibility of a bid for lieutenant governor, too, but noted if she strived for the governor’s office again in 2026, he had doubts about her ability to secure an endorsement from Trump. 

“The Trump World does not like people who lose,” Rose said. 

Overall, though, Rose said a step back may need to come before a step forward in any direction. 

“She just needs to take some time away. She needs to then put some new voices around her, rather than having many sycophants and really reflect on what’s going to be the winning formula,” Rose said. “Winning often is a little more nuanced, and especially in a state like this.”