Key Points:

• Republicans likely to unveil final Proposition 123 language on May 19 

• Democrats, education groups oppose tying school choice to teacher pay proposal 

• Opponents warn of lawsuits, campaigns if such a measure heads to voters 

A Republican-backed plan for Proposition 123, poised to raise teacher pay and create a constitutional protection for school choice, is likely to move through the Legislature on May 19. 

The goal was originally to push the plan through before both chambers took a prolonged recess, but Senate President Warren Petersen, R-Gilbert, and bill lead Sen. J.D. Mesnard, R-Chandler, said the caucus was still trying to reach consensus on the final language. 

“There’s still a few Is to dot and Ts to cross. And given the importance of this measure, and the interest level of the measure, whether folks are looking forward to it or not, I want to make sure we have it right,” Mesnard said. 

Anticipated movement on Prop. 123 comes after education groups and Democrats promised opposition to any plan that wraps in school choice protections, dashing any hopes of campaign support, drawing early lines in the sand and cementing a high likelihood the Republican majority’s proposal will pass on party lines.

School choice protections have long been part of the Prop. 123 conversation among Republicans, though any intersection of the two was deemed a nonstarter by Gov. Katie Hobbs and education groups. 

In a press conference on May 5, the Arizona Education Association, Save Our Schools Arizona and the House and Senate Democrats elevated their opposition and claimed any proposal tying teacher pay and school choice together is likely unconstitutional and unlikely to fly with voters.

“Prop. 123 is not a tool to be hijacked by Republicans to provide an untouchable lifeline to private school corporations,” Sen. Catherine Miranda, D-Laveen, said. 

With Prop. 123 set to expire at the end of the fiscal year, Mesnard, and Rep. Matt Gress, R-Phoenix, took the lead on retooling an education funding measure drawing on the state land trust fund to increase teacher pay. 

Ahead of the legislative session, Mesnard and Gress met with various stakeholders, including education groups and school choice proponents. Mesnard said meetings then moved into more one-on-one conversations, with a final proposal slowly coming together in tandem. 

An initial Prop. 123 package materialized in the House and Senate Education Committees in February, though with the caveat that negotiations were ongoing and a true final version would not come until later. 

Republicans have yet to unveil final language, but as it stands now, Mesnard said the Republican proposal would include about a $4,000 teacher raise, operating off a 6.9% distribution rate from the state land trust fund. Of that 6.9%, 4.5% of the distribution would be permanent and 2.4% would lapse in ten years. 

Teachers eligible for the raise would have to spend the majority of their time on classroom instruction and meet or exceed performance benchmarks set out in the state’s teacher evaluation process. 

In early April, Mesnard told the Arizona Capitol Times that the Republican caucus had been ironing out how exactly they wanted to incorporate school choice protections.

As of May 5, Mesnard said Republicans are still finalizing the language of the proposal, but that the main goal is “protecting what we have today — all the options that parents have from districts, charters, ESAs, open enrollment, private schools, online.” 

Hobbs’ spokesman Christian Slater called a Prop. 123 proposal incorporating school choice a “complete and total nonstarter,” in April. At a May 2 press conference, when asked if she would support such a proposal, Hobbs said, “absolutely not.” 

The Arizona Education Association, Save Our Schools Arizona and Democrat leadership convened on May 5 to say the same. 

Democrats and Save Our Schools Arizona staked out potential legal action under the state Constitution’s separate amendment clause, which requires voters to weigh in on distinct constitutional amendments separately.

Rep. Nancy Gutierrez, D-Tucson, said Democrats would rather see a clean continuation of Prop. 123 move forward. 

“It’s a false choice,” Gutierrez said. “These ideas don’t belong in the same bill.” 

“This was designed to prevent exactly what Republicans may be seeking to do — taking an unpopular issue and bundling it to a popular issue in an attempt to tie the hands of voters,” Miranda said. “Teacher pay increase is a popular issue, and our public schools have been seeking increased financial support from the Legislature for decades. However, universal private school vouchers funded by public money intended for public schools are not as popular. An overwhelming majority of families still choose public schools.” 

Sharon Kirsch, research director of Save Our Schools Arizona, similarly said the organization would have an attorney review any proposal from Republicans. 

“If it’s anything like what we’ve been hearing, what’s been reported, our message is: We’ll see it in court,” Kirsch said. 

Any lawsuit would have to come before the election. And as it stands now, Mesnard said the measure will likely run in November 2026. 

There is also the issue of support beyond the Legislature. 

Marisol Garcia, president of the Arizona Education Association, recalled that the last time Prop. 123 went to the ballot, it received broad support. She said if the proposal came out tied to school choice, the teachers’ union would be going on the offense in the form of an oppositional media campaign. 

Whether education groups would go as far as launching their own ballot measure in response to the Republican version of Prop. 123 is still up in the air. 

Garcia said, “Everything is on the table. Everything is always on the table. When it comes to education, when it comes to union work, everything has to be on the table.”

Mesnard said there are still myriad questions for Prop. 123’s passage beyond the Legislature, such as creating a campaign for public approval of the measure. 

“When you put something out there, especially something as important as this, something that I want to see pass as much as I want to see this pass, I’m sensitive to — who’s going to be our support? Who’s going to be our opposition? Is it going to be a state election? Are we going to see national money flowing in? How will this all play out?”

Mesnard said there had been preliminary conversations with groups supportive of school choice. 

Though he said it’s too early to put names of partners out there, he noted the familiar names pushing school choice, including the Goldwater Institute and the Free Enterprise Club. 

“It’s not entirely a shot in the dark, talking to groups out there that would be supportive based on the concepts we’re talking about,” Mesnard said. “We’ve been trying to lay the groundwork.”