In a strange turn of events, a recent Noble Predictive Insights poll has found that Republican gubernatorial contender Karrin Taylor-Robson is “10 points ahead of competitor” Andy Biggs. Robson was once estranged from the MAGA wing of the GOP and is now the frontrunner in the primary race.

Some commentators believe Robson’s early lead is not sustainable on the long campaign trail to the 2026 primary. Due to her lack of grassroots support, being viewed as a political insider, and flip-flopping on policy, she potentially weakens her dominance.

What would it mean for the AZ GOP if Robson wins the nomination? Both candidates have the endorsement of President Trump, but represent different factions of the GOP.

Robson presents Arizona with a MAGA-lite flavor of conservatism, favoring solution-focused policies and practicality.

Meanwhile, Biggs is a MAGA firebrand. Uncompromising and resolute when it comes to upholding conservative principles.

The current status of the GOP primary could be a shift in Arizona politics. While MAGA is still a predominant strain of conservatism, it’s losing steam. From March 2025 to June 2025, Republicans nationally identifying as MAGA declined to 49%.

Robson’s current lead could be the ripple effect of national trends bleeding into Arizona’s political landscape. Voters currently preferring Robson could be a sign of a shift toward moderate politics, supporting AZ First policies, and a demand for solutions over fiery rhetoric.

Arizona is far from a secure right-wing stronghold. The diaspora of transplants from deep-blue states has loosened the GOP’s grip on AZ. Outside of registered Republicans, the second largest voter demographic in the state is independents, making up 34.13% of the electorate. 

Republicans really need to reach persuadable moderates if they want to win elections – 59% of Arizona voters believe that “both political parties are too extreme.”

As we saw in the 2022 midterms, extremism is a vice when it comes to winning elections. Independent voters were unswayed by the quirks of far-right MAGA candidates Kari Lake and Blake Masters. Lake even failed to engage moderates in her 2024 Senate bid.

Robson side-steps the “Kari Lake Problem” by marketing herself as MAGA-friendly, but avoiding inflammatory rhetoric that is off-putting to moderates. Her balanced approach has so far paid off. She even leads with “Trump-first Republicans.” Showing that even some of Trump’s diehard supporters recognize the GOP needs to change course to win Arizona.

A whopping 60% of AZ voters don’t believe politicians focus on the most critical issues.

Robson, positioning herself as being business-oriented while focusing on matters of local concern, such as the economy and public safety, is a laudable attempt to avoid the trappings of the national political scene. Establishing a political brand that is Arizona-First.

Biggs is America-First, not Arizona-First. He’s as Trumpian as you can get. Instead of focusing on issues of concern to the state, he may import policies that achieve the grand strategy of the national MAGA coalition. 

The rising nationalization of state and local politics is evident with national advocacy groups weighing in on low-profile local elections.

As governor, you must put the state before your party; otherwise, you will be doing a disservice to Arizonans. 

Conservatives have succeeded in implementing tax cuts, border enforcement, and rolling back DEI. But they’ve lost ground due to infighting and their hostility toward bipartisanship.

Arizonans are not impressed by the theatrics of bomb-throwing ideologues – they prefer results. Only 29% of Arizona voters prefer politicians who refuse to reach across the aisle on principle.

On her campaign website, Robson has highlighted the public’s frustration with “bipartisan gridlock,” signaling that she will be willing to approach the issues facing the state pragmatically. 

I can only hope that Robson is sincere in her efforts to put Arizona first. However, with the primary 11 months away, we can only hope she doesn’t succumb to the pressure from external interest groups. However, her milder brand of conservative politics appears to be already resonating with voters. If she stays on course, she could be a new force in Arizona politics.

Peter Clark is an Arizona-based writer.