As Arizona families look ahead to the holiday season, many are coming to a painful realization: their hopes of gathering under a roof of their own have been pushed out of reach. For too many, the dream of setting a holiday table or hanging stockings in their first home has become a distant goal—because Governor Katie Hobbs’ policies, which function as urban growth boundaries, have choked off the supply of housing that families depend on.

Across the country, the median age of first-time homebuyers has climbed to a record 40. A market short on entry-level homes has forced young families to delay marriage, children, and milestones like hosting their first Thanksgiving or Christmas. Earlier generations could purchase a home in their thirties; many today are simply priced out.

In Arizona, this challenge has become far worse because of the land and water policies driving Governor Hobbs’ de facto growth limits.

Hobbs’ Water Policies Have Increased Housing Scarcity

As Governor, Hobbs directs the Arizona Department of Water Resources and the groundwater rules that determine whether new subdivisions can be built. After issuing a flawed groundwater model in June 2023, her administration imposed a moratorium on new subdivision approvals in the Phoenix area—immediately freezing nearly half a million planned homes, many in the most attainable price ranges.

Projects stalled. Communities were left incomplete. Families who planned to move into new neighborhoods or build equity in a first home were blocked entirely, widening the region’s housing deficit to 56,000 homes today. Because the moratorium applies only to the outskirts of Phoenix, where land is more affordable, it boxes future development into already urbanized parts of the city and drives prices even higher.

These constraints are completely unnecessary. Arizona is not running out of water. The aquifer beneath Phoenix extends more than 11,000 feet deep; we are still within the first 1,000. Hobbs’ model projected that some areas might dip below that level a century from now—assumptions that experts have thoroughly refuted. Halting homebuilding today for a hypothetical scenario 100 years from now is irresponsible.

The economic consequences are severe. Studies show Hobbs’ moratorium has increased home prices by roughly $20,000 and could cost Arizona $2 billion in real GDP over the next decade. The Common Sense Institute estimates the policy will eliminate nearly 19,000 jobs and reduce personal income by $3.9 billion by 2035—much of it lost in the construction trades that sustain working families.

Hobbs’ Land-Use Policies Have Reduced Land Availability

The Governor also oversees the Arizona State Land Department, which manages more than 9.2 million acres of state trust land and controls which parcels are released for public auction to support new housing.

New analysis from the Common Sense Institute shows that roughly 276,700 acres of trust land sit unleased and unused within 10 miles of Arizona’s cities and towns—enough to support more than 200,000 homes. When leased parcels with realistic development potential are included, CSI estimates that nearly 3 million acres near urban centers could support between 800,000 and 1.4 million new homes. This represents one of Arizona’s largest untapped sources for housing.

 With the state needing 50,000 to 100,000 new homes immediately, this land should be part of the solution. Instead, under Governor Hobbs, the Land Department has kept it idle. Since January 2023, the agency has held only a handful of competitive auctions for residential land in the Phoenix area—zero during her first year in office, when the moratorium was issued. At a time when families are desperate for options they can afford, the state agency responsible for releasing land has done almost nothing to make that possible.

 Rather than put this land to work to help lower housing prices, the Governor’s environmental objectives have steered the department toward policies of nonuse, catering to her anti-growth political allies at the expense of Arizona working families. Because Phoenix is encircled by these trust land parcels, the department’s refusal to release them has created a de facto wall that confines development inside the city and shuts working-class homebuyers out. 

Hobbs’ Environmental Policies Have Increased Homelessness and Evictions

 Through groundwater rules that block new subdivisions and land-management decisions that restrict supply, the Hobbs administration has effectively re-created the same urban growth boundaries voters overwhelmingly rejected in 2000 when they defeated Prop 202 by a 2-to-1 margin. That failed initiative mirrored the Portland-style restrictions that helped double housing prices, making cities less affordable. Voters said no. Hobbs implemented the same approach through executive action, giving her radical activist allies an anti-growth policy they could never win at the ballot box.

 The human cost has been devastating. Maricopa County recorded 87,130 eviction filings in 2024—the highest in its history. Thirteen percent of households are now “severely cost-burdened,” spending half or more of their income on housing. Homelessness among families has surged 140 percent since 2022.

 Rather than reverse course, Hobbs has proposed more subsidies for housing costs while keeping growth restrictions in place. That failed approach—constraining supply while subsidizing demand—only raises prices and deepens the problem.

 No Home for the Holidays

 The deeper tragedy is that none of this was inevitable. There is no groundwater shortage blocking new development. There is ample land available for new housing. Bipartisan legislation existed to build starter homes. And voters rejected growth boundaries decades ago. 

This crisis was a choice.

 As Arizona families gather this holiday season, thousands will do so without a home of their own—some in shelters, some doubled up with relatives, others living in cars. Meanwhile, Governor Hobbs’ policies continue to protect the wealthy and well-connected while shutting out working families.

 Arizonans deserve better. They deserve real solutions that restore affordability, expand housing opportunity, and make the dream of homeownership—and a home for the holidays—possible again.