A Republican House incumbent is defending his seat in a pivotal swing district where candidates’ stance on abortion could be a deciding factor. 

Only one Democrat ran for the House in Legislative District 4 in 2022, but this year Democratic candidates Kelli Butler and Karen Gresham are hoping to unseat Republican incumbent Rep. Matt Gress, R-Phoenix, by portraying him as an ”extreme anti-abortion” candidate. 

The Arizona Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee pointed out the conservative nonprofit lobbying group the Center for Arizona Policy endorsed Gress in a Sept. 26 news release. The group’s mission statement is to “promote and defend the foundational values of life, marriage and family, and religious freedom.”

“Voters have made it clear that they will be supporting candidates this November who will protect access to abortion,” Elsa O’Callaghan, the Democratic group’s executive director, said in the news release. “These endorsements show that Republican candidates are out of step with the voters of their districts, who believe in basic access to reproductive healthcare and protecting LGBTQ+ Arizonans.” 

Gress, a former budget director for former Republican Gov. Doug Ducey, is seeking his second term of office representing the swing district of LD4, which covers north Phoenix, Scottsdale and Paradise Valley. 

But Gress was instrumental in repealing the state’s 1864 abortion ban, which saw numerous efforts by GOP leadership to block the legislation from being heard on the House floor. He pushed for the legislation to receive a House vote numerous times with Democrats and lobbied other Republicans to vote in repealing the territorial era ban, calling it “unworkable” and not reflective of the values of most of the electorate.

His push to get the repeal bill heard on the floor cost him politically within his party. House Speaker Ben Toma, R-Peoria, removed him from the House Appropriations Committee after the bill got through the House. Some of his House Republican colleagues suggested Republicans single-shot LD4 with Gress’ running mate Pamela Carter, a business owner who worked for former President Donald Trump’s campaign in 2020. 

“We only need 1 (Republican) in LD4. Single shot Pam Carter,” Rep. Jacqueline Parker, R-Mesa, wrote in an April 24 post on X after the abortion ban repeal bill made it through the House. 

Carter previously ran for Scottsdale City Council in 2022, but lost by about 15% to Councilman Barry Graham. She is the sister of Lynda Carter, who played Wonder Woman in the 1970s, but Mother Jones reported on Sept. 13 that Lynda Carter is not endorsing her sister in her legislative race. 

During Carter’s campaign for Scottsdale City Council, she said she hoped the Legislature would not allow any abortions after Roe v. Wade was overturned. 

GOP Consultant Chuck Coughlin, a resident of LD4, said Carter’s stance on abortion could cost her a seat in the district where he believes its residents are seeking a moderate solution for abortion issues.

“There’s people that are just frustrated with politics,” Coughlin said. “The more that they see people trying to solve problems – AKA the abortion issue – I think the more that they’re likely to support them.”

The Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission gives Republicans a slight advantage in the district with a 3.4% vote spread. Voters in the district elected Sen. Christine Marsh, D-Phoenix, along with Gress and Laura Terech, in 2022. 

Gress was the lead vote-getter in the 2022 LD4 House race, while Terech got just under 2% more votes than Republican Maria Syms. Gress finished with just more than 1% more votes than Terech.

Republicans have one-seat majorities in both the House and Senate. Tyler Montague, an East Valley Republican who helped lead the recall of former Senate President Russell Pearce, said any strategy from Republicans to unseat Gress would be unwise if they want to maintain control of the House. 

“They would rather be in the minority and be pure than to have a bigger tent and win,” Montague said. “They’ve always been that way before they called themselves the Freedom Caucus.”

Running against the Republicans are former Rep. Kelli Butler and Madison Elementary School District Board member Karen Gresham. Democrats won one of the House seats in 2022 when former state Rep. Laura Terech won in the 2022 general election. However, her departure from the Legislature in June leaves Democrats without an incumbent in the race. 

Butler served three terms in the House from 2017-2024 and previously represented parts of the district. She is currently a member of the Maricopa County Community College District Governing Board.

Gresham has served on the Madison Elementary School District Governing Board since 2020, when she beat Gress by less than 1% of votes for a spot on the board.

Both Butler and Gresham oppose the state’s current 15-week abortion ban and have called it an “arbitrary” number. Gress mostly supports the 15-week law but said he thinks some additional exceptions are needed. 

Both Republican and Democratic slates ran uncontested during the primary, and Gress got the most votes among any candidate with 24,366 votes. Butler got the second-most with nearly 21,000 votes, while Carter got about 19,400 votes and Gresham got 18,900. 

Gress has been a fundraising juggernaut among legislative candidates since his 2022 campaign. Pre-primary election campaign finance reports indicate Gress has led the candidates in campaign fundraising, with over $400,000 raised before early July. Butler and Gresham nearly matched that, with a combined $381,000 during the same time period. Pamela Carter raised about $85,000.

“(Ducey), if nothing, was a prolific fundraiser with people who wanted to be supportive of him,” Coughlin said. “Matt has positioned himself as the heir apparent to that goodwill and has had a lot of support from the former governor and the entire Ducey alumni network … he’s a progenitor of what Ducey was.

Coughlin also said Democratic fundraising efforts in the district have been strong, too. Terech’s replacement in the Legislature is Rep. Eric Meyer, D-Paradise Valley, a former House minority leader who helped create the Arizona Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee with Gov. Katie Hobbs back when she was a legislator. 

Butler and Gresham broke the record for second-quarter fundraising for a House candidate post-2002, when the state began collecting data online, according to a July 11 news release from the ADLCC.