Few state governments saw partisan changes after the November election, leading the National Conference of State Legislatures to predict a continuation of last year’s policy themes. 

CEO Tim Storey, however, also predicted outside spending will continue to boom at the state level as an increasing amount of policymaking occurs in state capitals rather than in Washington, D.C. 

“If you want something to change, you have to make it happen in the states,” he said Monday on a conference call to highlight the top legislative issues for 2025. “For folks that have the resources and want to get it done, they have to do it in the states, particularly in the 24 states that have the initiative process. I think all industries recognize the ability to come in and have a hand at the state level.”

According to Storey, only four state chambers – including the Michigan House – flipped, representing an ongoing decline in partisan churn. 

“A lot of legislation is driven by the caucus agenda, but in most states the party in control now has been in control for the last four to 10 years,” he said. “You’re not going to see a big surge of policymaking from a conservative or progressive stance because it’s still the same folks.” 

Regardless of party control, developing budgets will continue to be priority No. 1, but for the first time in several years will be a more restrained process, Storey predicted. 

The Covid-era infusion of billions of dollars of federal funds has now run out and nearly every state has enacted some kind of tax cut in the last few years. At the same time, state revenues have been strong in the last couple of years, setting a solid position for the new cycle. 

“The theme will be tighter budgets, far more scrutiny, less money for new programs, less money to solve problems,” he said. 

Other 2025 legislative themes will be workforce, an issue that cuts across every field in both the public and private sectors, and technology as states continue to grapple with artificial intelligence, social media, and cyber security, he said. 

The housing crisis will also be a hot topic, becoming a perennial issue much like education, he suggested.

And underlying all issues will be the economy and the impact of the shift in the federal government, he added.

“We don’t expect the federal government to suddenly have a flurry of legislation,” he said. “It takes time to cultivate legislation, but maybe executive orders could have an impact on states fairly immediately.” 

Many states are in a wait-and-see situation, he said, particularly when it comes to President-elect Donald Trump’s immigration policies, which would have a “massive impact” on state economies and workforce. 

“There’s a whole lot of rhetoric and some speculation as to the impact of tariffs and deportations, so it’s wait-and see, but there’s a high cognition that this change would have a major impact on states,” he said. 

As was the case last year, NCSL is also forecasting a focus on reducing energy emissions while meeting rising demand, finding alternatives to gas tax revenues, supporting military and veterans, providing affordable child care and addressing the intersection of Medicaid and the justice system.