Imagine if the Arizona Department of Transportation decided where to build a new highway based on a confidential straw poll instead of a traffic study.

Or if the Arizona Department of Health Services determined hospital capacity through a show of hands rather than medical data.

The public would never accept major government decisions being made that way. Arizonans expect government agencies to rely on science, evidence, expert analysis and transparent decision-making.

So why should the Salt River wild horses be any different?

For years, the public has been told that Arizona’s plan to reduce the Salt River wild horse herd was the product of science-based management. Most people naturally assumed that a target population of approximately 120 to 125 horses was supported by independent genetic studies, population viability analyses and other scientific evaluations.

Public records tell a different story.

Through a public records request, documents revealed that the original proposal to reduce the herd to approximately 100 horses did not emerge from an independent scientific study. Instead, the number originated during a confidential straw poll conducted among participants in a collaborative stakeholder process. The figure was later negotiated upward, eventually becoming the current target of approximately 120 to 125 horses.

That should concern everyone, regardless of where they stand on wild horse management.

The issue is not whether the horses should be managed. Most advocates support responsible and humane management. The issue is whether a government agency should permanently remove healthy animals from a publicly treasured herd before demonstrating, through independent science, that the remaining population can remain genetically healthy and sustainable for generations.

To date, the public has not been provided with an independent population viability analysis demonstrating that a herd reduced to approximately 120 horses can persist long-term without unacceptable genetic risks. Nor has the public been shown a current, peer-reviewed genetic assessment supporting that target.

Meanwhile, respected equine geneticist Dr. E. Gus Cothran has warned that wild horse populations generally require approximately 150 to 200 animals to maintain long-term genetic health. Similar concerns have been raised in federal wild horse management discussions across the country.

The Salt River herd has already declined dramatically. Through fertility control and natural attrition, the population has fallen from approximately 450 horses five years ago to about 271 today — a reduction of more than 40% without mass removals.

Advocates believe the existing fertility-control program could continue reducing the population over time while preserving family bands and maintaining the herd within a scientifically defensible range. Yet Arizona continues moving toward a target that many experts believe may place the herd at unnecessary risk.

This is not simply a wild horse issue. It is a government accountability issue.

When agencies make decisions affecting public resources, those decisions should be supported by transparent data and sound science. If the scientific evidence exists, release it. If the studies have been completed, make them public. If independent experts support the target, let their findings be reviewed and discussed.

But if the number was largely born from negotiation and polling rather than science, Arizonans deserve to know that as well.

The Salt River wild horses belong to no political party. They are part of Arizona’s natural heritage and one of the state’s most beloved attractions. Decisions about their future should meet the same standard we would expect for transportation projects, public health planning, water policy or any other important government action.

No highway would be built based on a straw poll. No hospital would be planned that way. No major public policy should be.

Arizona should pause permanent removals until an independent scientific review is completed and the public can be assured that any herd-size target is driven by science rather than consensus-building exercises.

When it comes to the future of the Salt River wild horses, science should lead and politics should follow.

Karen Schutte is managing editor of TREND Report and Real Estate Daily News in Tucson and a member of Friends of the Salt River Wild Horses.