In an age of hyperpartisan politics, governors stand apart. Voters see them differently than they view federal candidates: Your governor fixes roads and bridges, funds your local public school, handles issues that don’t break down along the neat lines of party preference.

That makes for a more convoluted set of contested gubernatorial races than the battle for the U.S. House or Senate. A state like Kansas hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since the 1930s — but Gov. Laura Kelly, a Democrat, is finishing up her second term. A state like Vermont is solidly in the Democratic column — but Gov. Phil Scott, a Republican, is so popular he didn’t even need to run television ads in his last election.

Read more: Rating the 2026 gubernatorial contests, from Alabama to Wyoming

Governor’s races are also unique because it’s exceptionally rare for an incumbent to lose. In fact, it’s getting harder to do so: Re-election rates for incumbent governors have grown to more than 95% in the last two decades, well above those of members of Congress.

Read more: Gov race ratings: Plenty of intrigue in the next tier

This year, only two incumbents make our list of the most competitive races. Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, is seeking re-election in the swing state President Donald Trump carried by the widest margin in 2024. Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo, a Republican who pulled off the rare feat of beating a sitting governor four years ago, faces a well-known attorney general.

The seven other most-competitive races are for open seats, in which incumbents are either retiring or term-limited. Both parties say they are confident their candidates can sweep the board in November.

“Republican governors dominate rankings for wage growth, job creation, affordability and lower energy costs. Meanwhile, Democrat states are riddled with fraud, out-of-control spending and rising crime,” said Kollin Crompton, communications director at the Republican Governors Association. “It’s clear to Americans what’s at stake this election: It’s commonsense versus crazy. If you want your family to thrive and succeed, elect a Republican governor.”

“In battleground and red state races for governor this year, Democratic candidates are going on offense on the economy and running on plans to lower costs, while forcing their Republican opponents to own the rising cost of groceries, gas, and utility bills, along with major health care cuts,” said Sam Newton, communications director at the Democratic Governors Association.

“Republicans’ close alignment with Donald Trump and the disastrous policies coming out of DC are going to be an especially massive liability for their campaigns. There’s no doubt we have the momentum, but the stakes have never been higher so we’re keeping our foot on the gas to win key flip opportunities like Georgia, Ohio, Nevada and Iowa — and have the winning record to get it done.”

Here are our ratings of the nine most competitive races of the year, in alphabetical order:

ALASKA

The combination of a massive field of candidates and Alaska’s unique primary system — in which the top four candidates advance to a November showdown, regardless of party — make this race the most unpredictable in the nation. Seventeen candidates have filed to run, and while not all of them will formally qualify, that’s still a crowded ballot. At least one candidate, former Democratic state Rep. Jonathan “JKT” Kreiss-Tomkins, is airing ads on television. But, in a measure of how weird this race is, he’s not even the only candidate known by an acronym in the race: Former Angoon City Councilman James “JP4” Parkin IV, a Republican, is also running.

Rating: Tossup

ARIZONA

Gov. Katie Hobbs is the most endangered incumbent Democrat running for re-election. Hobbs won election in 2022 against Kari Lake, the election-denialist Donald Trump ally who proved a flawed candidate, to be generous, by less than a percentage point. Working in her favor: She faces another election-denialist Trump ally in U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, who has the added baggage of being associated with Washington, D.C. Working in Biggs’s favor: Trump carried the state by nearly 6 points in 2024, his largest winning margin of any swing state.

Rating: Lean Democrat

GEORGIA

Six months ago, Rick Jackson was known in Republican political circles as a big-dollar donor, and that’s it. Today, after dumping $100 million into his first campaign for office, he’s the Republican nominee for governor, beating out three statewide officeholders to win the nod. He faces former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, who romped through the Democratic primary.

Both parties see this as one of the marquee races of the year. Jackson benefits from a bottomless wallet, and he’ll point to Bottoms’s leadership in Atlanta and tenure in the Biden administration. Bottoms benefits from a favorable environment for Democrats, significant primary turnout, and her tight partnership with U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff, a Democrat running for re-election. Democrats in the state say the two are acting like running mates, and their appeals to different elements of the party’s coalition will help both of them.

Rating: Tossup

IOWA

Both Democrats and Republicans agree there may not be a better candidate running for governor this year than state Auditor Rob Sand, a Democrat who has proven his fundraising chops and his electability in a red state. Sand is the rare Democrat who’s comfortable talking about his faith, love of hunting and connection to his rural roots. He faces investment executive Zach Lahn, the surprise winner of a contested Republican primary. Lahn has his own money, and Iowa hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since Chet Culver won in the 2006 blue wave. The question is whether a similar wave is developing this year — and whether it’s large enough for Sand to overcome Iowa’s increasingly red tilt.

Rating: Tossup

KANSAS

Republicans see Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly’s exit as their best chance to make a pickup this year. The Republican primary features another showdown between the state’s conservative wing — state Senate President Ty Masterson, who has Trump’s endorsement, and Philip Sarnecki, a wealthy financial executive — and the more moderate wing represented by Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt. Most Republicans see Masterson leading the pack, without running away from the rest of the field.

On the other side, Kelly sees state Sen. Ethan Corson as her heir apparent, though Corson faces fellow Sen. Cindy Holscher and Overland Park Mayor Curt Skoog in the Democratic primary.

Rating: Lean Republican

MICHIGAN

Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is cruising to the Democratic nomination over Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson. She’s likely to face U.S. Rep. John James, who won Trump’s endorsement in the GOP primary, though businessman Perry Johnson is spending heavily out of his own pocket. Democrats are optimistic about Benson, all the more so because the Republican primary turned ugly, early. But Michigan is a swing state, and neither party has elected successive governors since William Milliken followed George Romney in 1970.

Rating: Lean Democrat

NEVADA

Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo was the only challenger to defeat an incumbent in 2022, and he’s the most vulnerable Republican up for re-election this year. Lombardo is a Republican more in the vein of George W. Bush than Trump — which helps in a swing state but puts him on the defensive any time he’s asked to contrast himself with the famously sensitive sitting president.

He faces Attorney General Aaron Ford, who won re-election by a wider margin, and with more votes, than Lombardo did on the same ballot. Count on Ford to tie Lombardo to the president and the economy. And expect this to be one of the most competitive races in the country.

Rating: Lean Republican

OHIO

Former state health director Amy Acton has been the surprise of the cycle, proving herself an able fundraiser and the best shot Democrats have had at the governorship in two decades. She faces entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, the former presidential candidate who has dumped millions into his own campaign. Both parties see this as one of the most competitive races of the year. Ramaswamy will have the cash edge in a state that has trended to the right, but his association with the Department of Government Efficiency and his past work as a healthcare executive give Democrats something to target. Polls show a virtually tied race in spite of Ramaswamy’s early advertising blitz.

Rating: Lean Republican

WISCONSIN

Democrats face the potential for a major disaster in the consummate swing state: The party’s leading gubernatorial contender, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, dropped out of the race after discovering her campaign manager allegedly misappropriated the TV ad budget. Republicans are meddling in the primary by boosting state Rep. Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist who many Democrats don’t think can win a statewide race, as “too liberal.”

Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley jumped back in the race with Gov. Tony Evers’s support 10 days after quitting and endorsing Rodriguez. And former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes hasn’t been able to catch fire. Democrats are planning to paint the GOP nominee, U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, as a Trump acolyte from swampy Washington. Tiffany couldn’t be more pleased at the infighting he’s seeing on the other side of the aisle.

Rating: Tossup