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AZ GOP helps take control of U.S. House
Camryn Sanchez Arizona Capitol Times//November 17, 2022
Republicans took control of Arizona’s formerly Democrat-led congressional delegation this week, contributing to flipping the U.S. House of Representatives.
Republican Juan Ciscomani won his race against Democrat Kirsten Engel in the 6th Congressional District, and Democrat incumbent Tom O’Halleran lost his 2nd Congressional District race to Republican newcomer Eli Crane.
With Ciscomani and Crane’s wins, Republicans went from controlling four of Arizona’s nine House seats to six. After a close race in the 1st Congressional District, the other Arizona Republican representatives all kept their seats.
President Joe Biden has a low approval rating and is associated with skyrocketing inflation rates. Republicans hoped this dissatisfaction would garner support for a “red wave,” but were ultimately not as successful as they hoped to be. Their largest victory was in the United States House where Democrats currently have a small majority with 220 representatives.
As of November 16, Republicans secured the 218 seats they needed to control the House. Democrats had 211 seats, and races for six seats were still undecided.
Republicans took control of Arizona’s formerly Democrat-led congressional delegation this week, contributing to flipping the U.S. House of Representatives.
Republican Juan Ciscomani won his race against Democrat Kirsten Engel in the 6th Congressional District, and Democrat incumbent Tom O’Halleran lost his 2nd Congressional District race to Republican newcomer Eli Crane.
With Ciscomani and Crane’s wins, Republicans went from controlling four of Arizona’s nine House seats to six. After a close race in the 1st Congressional District, the other Arizona Republican representatives all kept their seats.
President Joe Biden has a low approval rating and is associated with skyrocketing inflation rates. Republicans hoped this dissatisfaction would garner support for a “red wave,” but were ultimately not as successful as they hoped to be. Their largest victory was in the United States House where Democrats currently have a small majority with 220 representatives.
As of November 16, Republicans secured the 218 seats they needed to control the House. Democrats had 211 seats, and races for six seats were still undecided.
With control of the chamber, Republicans could stymy Biden’s and congressional Democrats’ agenda.
Republican consultant Daniel Scarpinato said of the new House majority, “Given how slim the majority will be, it remains to be seen how significant it truly will be. It is historically close, and in that respect, it will be a political science experience worth watching very closely. Given the divisions within the Republican Party, whether there is a ‘governing’ majority is unclear.”
Scarpinato works on Ciscomani’s campaign.
Arizona 5th Congressional District Rep. Andy Biggs made a bid for speaker of the House, but lost in a landslide to Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., who is the current minority leader. The vote was 218-30 for McCarthy.
The success of McCarthy and Ciscomani echoes a trend in this year’s elections where “establishment” Republicans were far and away more successful than Republicans endorsed by former President Donald Trump in the general election, even though the opposite was largely true in the primaries.
Republican Differences
Ciscomani was the only Arizona Republican congressional candidate in the general election who did not seek or receive Trump’s endorsement. Ciscomani is a former member of Gov. Doug Ducey’s cabinet who did not deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election or push for abortion bans.
Biggs is the opposite candidate. “Stop the Steal” organizer Ali Alexander testified that he was in communication with Biggs before the attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021. Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives Rusty Bowers testified to the January 6 House committee that Biggs called him on January 6 and asked him to sign a letter calling for the decertification of the election results. Biggs’ brothers William and David wrote to The Arizona Republic calling for Biggs’ removal from office, claiming that he was at least partly responsible for the attack.
Biggs denies any involvement in planning the attack on the U.S. Capitol, but he did ask for a presidential pardon for his involvement and denied the results of the 2020 election. He was endorsed early on by Trump and does not support limits on abortion bans. He also opposes same-sex marriage and said he doesn’t believe in climate change. These are views that “establishment” Republcains like Ciscomani are leaning away from.
Although Biggs was not drawn into a “competitive” district, he still got the narrowest win since he first became a congressman. He won with 56.7% of the vote over an independent and a candidate who didn’t accept any donations. Biggs raised $1,916,882 to Democrat challenger Javier Garcia Ramos’s $15,243.
Senate a Priority
In the midyear election, Democrats put most of their energy into the U.S. Senate race and left House candidates out of major events.
The Senate race and governor’s race were pushed heavily by the Arizona Democratic Party. Former President Barack Obama headlined a rally on November 3 to stir up support for the Democrat ticket. All but one of the statewide race candidates and Kelly spoke. Kelly spoke the longest apart from Obama and was praised most by the former president.
Democrats Jevin Hodge and Kirsten Engel ran in the most competitive congressional districts and did not speak. O’Halleran and fellow Democratic incumbent Greg Stanton also ran in semi-competitive districts and did not speak. None of the four Democrats were talked up by the other speakers either.
“It was disappointing. I wish he was able to speak. I think he could have made a difference,” Democrat consultant Steven Slugocki said of Hodge’s omission from the Obama lineup.
Democrat House candidates were left out of other events, like a panel with Planned Parenthood representatives on the importance of Democrats in elections where Hobbs, Mayes and Democratic Party Chair Raquel Terán, D-Phoenix, spoke.
Democrats across the country spent millions on Arizona’s congressional races, but it wasn’t enough.
New District Boundaries
Part of the Republicans’ success is attributable to redistricting. The Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission drew Arizona’s nine new congressional districts in December of last year. Democrats accused the commission of stacking the 7th Congressional District with Republicans to make the 6th Congressional District harder for Democrats to win.
Most of CD6 was represented by Democratic Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick, who did not run for re-election.
David Mehl, a Republican member of the redistricting commission, pushed for CD7’s line to move far east, keeping blue Tucson and the University of Arizona together in a single Democratic district. Mehl’s son donated to Ciscomani’s campaign and Ciscomani’s wife Laura Ciscomani nominated Mehl to the commission. Mehl denied accusations that he was making decisions in Ciscomani’s favor and disgruntled Democrats didn’t get their way. The district ended up highly competitive and leaning slightly to the right.
The Democrats’ second blow was the loss of CD2. O’Halleran was ousted by Trump-endorsee Crane after O’Halleran was drawn into a red district. Crane was ahead with 53.9% of the vote as of November 16.
The new CD2 was less competitive than CD6 and labeled “outside of competitive range.” In 2020, voters in the new CD2 voted 53.6% Republican and 46.4% Democrat, which was nearly identical to the election’s vote spread.
Incumbent Republican Rep. David Schweikert struggled to keep his seat but pulled through after the lead went back and forth a few times. Schweikert was endorsed by Trump late in the game, less than two months before the August primary election.
Trump and Schweikert kept one another at arm’s length and didn’t appear alongside one another this year. Schweikert voted to certify the results of the 2020 election on January 6, 2021.
Schweikert was convicted for 11 House ethics violations and was sued in the primary campaign for running an ad against fellow Republican Elijah Norton with the caption “Elijah Norton isn’t being straight with you” over an image of Elijah Norton with his arm around another man. As of November 16, Schweikert was ahead with just 50.4% of the vote.
Democratic consultant Slugocki said of CD1, “I’m very confident that this is going to be one of the most important districts in 2024 because of how close it was. He [Hodge] may not have got there this time, but we will in two years.”
Kelly’s Senate campaign was hugely emphasized by Democrats for the entire campaign season. Senators are more powerful because there are only 100 compared to the House’s 435 members, but apart from that Slugocki said he doesn’t know why the House races were not a priority of the Democratic Party.
