Correction: A previous version of this story left a digit off of the number of acres of irrigated farmland in the Phoenix, Pinal and Pima Active Management Areas that could use the ag-to-urban program. It has been corrected to 425,232 acres. 

Sen. T.J. Shope, R-Coolidge, is preparing to reintroduce a bill that would give farmers an option to sell agricultural land to developers in hopes of increasing the state’s housing supply, improving home affordability and preserving groundwater.

Shope’s “ag-to-urban” legislation is designed to address the lack of housing in communities where there’s also shortage of groundwater, especially in areas where restrictions have been placed on new home construction, because single family homes use less water than agricultural land.

The Legislature passed a similar version of the bill last year, but Gov. Katie Hobbs vetoed the legislation. In her veto letter, Hobbs said she supported the concept of the bill but the data among the state’s initial Active Management Areas in Phoenix, Tucson, Prescott and Pinal County didn’t support universal adoption of the program.

If this version of the bill is passed, Shope said the program could serve as a boon to the state’s housing supply.

According to numbers shared by Republican Senate staff, there are 425,232 acres of irrigated farmland in the Phoenix, Pinal and Pima Active Management Areas that could use the ag-to-urban program. If half of the farmland is converted for development, more than a million homes could be built since new developments average five homes per acre.

Shope said he has begun holding stakeholder meetings and will look to work with the Democratic caucus, Governor’s Office, the Arizona Department of Water Resources, the Gila River Indian Community, private water companies, and officials from cities, counties and towns across the state.

Some water policy experts say the program could be a good idea depending on how it protects water in the aquifers and what kind of provisions are made for the future. 

“The biggest source of depletion is agriculture. So shifting water use from agriculture to a lower water use … is a good thing for water supply,” said Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University’s Morrison Institute for Public Policy. “But there are formulations of the ag-to urban transfer that don’t, over the long term, protect the aquifer. So it will be important to come up with a formulation that actually benefits the aquifers.”

The Kyl Center for Water Policy released a report examining the connection between areas with restrictions on new home development due to long-term water supply concerns and its effect on home prices.

According to the report, housing affordability can depend on a number of factors such as zoning and development codes, local, state and federal government policies, and how individual municipalities choose to plan for more affordable housing.

“A lot of the housing affordability is not about buying a single family home,” Porter said.

Shope points to science as proof that this type of program could help serve as a remedy for the housing shortage and water issues across Maricopa, Pinal and Pima counties.

“Because of the advancements in agriculture science over the decades, you don’t need to farm as much of that land in order to have the yield that you get,” he said.

Those advancements have led to the state using approximately the same amount of water as it did in the 1950s despite the fact that there were only about 1 million people living in the state at the time compared to more than 7 million people today.

Shope highlighted the transformation of agricultural land to home subdivisions in Chandler, Gilbert and areas of the West Valley as an example of how the program could work.

“We’ve seen those lands be transformed into housing development, mainly single family homes,” he said. “And we have seen water use, as a result of that, go down tremendously.”

Porter said that while it’s true homes use less water than agriculture, the benefit could be negated depending on how much water developments are allowed to pump.

“If it goes on forever, it might wind up using more water than the agriculture that it replaced. So that’s another important consideration,” she said.

Shope said this bill could be one of the most important water bills to hit the governor’s desk if the Legislature passes it.

“I do think it’s going to be the most consequential water bill that has a chance of passing,” Shope said. “I don’t know that some of the other proposals that are out there for different things, whether it’s rural groundwater or other water issues, reach the level of importance and the possibility to have as much of an impact like this bill and also have a chance to be signed.”