Key Points:

• Gov. Katie Hobbs and Congressman Andy Biggs have been trading attacks since July 21

• Hobbs’ refusal to debate and allegations of a pay-to-play scandal give Republicans ammo

• Biggs’ election denial and support for President Donald Trump’s economic agenda leave him vulnerable

The race between Gov. Katie Hobbs and Congressman Andy Biggs took no time turning negative, with both candidates honing in on issues that have long plagued both of them. 

Hobbs, the Democratic incumbent, dropped a digital ad dubbed “Big Problem,” four minutes after the Republican primary was called for Biggs on July 21. It skewered the Republican congressman for his support of President Donald Trump’s agenda, including voting for  Medicaid cuts and against the release of the Epstein files.

The governor went a step further the week after the primary when talking to voters in Tucson and the national outlet MS NOW. She repeated claims from Republican lawmakers who accused Biggs of protecting the Fundamentalist Latter-Day Saints sect during his time as Senate president by refusing to hear a bill targeting corruption in the Colorado City/Hilldale Police Department.

Biggs responded a week later with his own digital ad calling out the pay-to-play scandal that has plagued Hobbs’ administration since 2024. The ad urges voters not to trust a governor who is under “ongoing criminal investigation” after a donor to her 2022 campaign received a lucrative rate increase for his business as a group home contractor with the Department of Child Safety.

It’s no secret that both candidates, who have been active in Arizona politics for over a decade, are bringing baggage into the general election. It remains to be seen which attacks will actually draw blood.

“I view these as body shots, like you’re in a boxing match,” said Republican consultant Brian Murray. “All these body shots are what’s going to win you the election. It’s not just going to be some knockout punch.” 

Hobbs: A ‘veto queen’ with few wins?

If you ask some Republicans, Hobbs sealed her fate when she announced on July 30 that she will not participate in a televised debate against Biggs.

It was a move Arizona politicos saw coming. Political consultants Stacy Pearson and Barrett Marson told the Arizona Capitol Times after the June 17 Republican primary debate that it was all but a foregone conclusion.

“She’ll come up with every reason in the book not to debate Andy Biggs,” said Marson, a Republican. “I’m sure that campaign has already decided they will not debate Andy Biggs.”

Pearson argued that it wouldn’t be worth the governor’s time to participate in a debate.

“She owes voters an appearance in front of the voters; she doesn’t owe [them participation in] a format that allows for [Biggs] to sidestep questions,” said Pearson, a Democrat. 

The much darker cloud hanging over Hobbs’ chances of reelection is the pay-to-play allegations involving group home operator Sunshine Residential, DCS and Hobbs’ 2022 campaign. Biggs has already been making hay over the issue, which was first reported in 2024.

Murray said the allegations could do real damage to Hobbs, but only if the Biggs campaign has the funding to raise it to voters through advertising blitzes — and it’s not yet clear that he does.

Hobbs’ office maintains that the governor did not direct DCS or its director at the time to raise rates for Sunshine Residential. Attorney General Kris Mayes, also a Democrat, told reporters on Monday that her office’s investigation of the matter is nearing its conclusion, with results expected before the election. 

Meanwhile, some consultants argue the governor doesn’t have the demonstrable wins to counter the mud Biggs is slinging her way.

“There are no laurels to laud,” said one politico, speaking anonymously.

Republicans have long pointed to Hobbs’ record-breaking 541 vetoes over four years as proof that the governor is little more than a backstop against conservative policy goals. 

Biggs: An election denier too embedded in D.C.?

“I think the biggest baggage [in 2026] is a guy named Donald J. Trump,” Murray said. “And he is obviously closely aligned with Congressman Biggs.”

Biggs has attempted to shake off his reputation as a staunch supporter of President Trump’s efforts to sow doubt in the results of the 2020 election. But his recent nonanswers to questions regarding Trump’s 2020 loss and Hobbs’ 2022 win are not impressing voters eager to move on from election fraud claims.

Stephen Richer, a Republican and former Maricopa County Recorder, has taken to social media to urge Biggs to give a straight answer to both questions about the 2020 and 2022 election results. In the posts, Richer says Biggs won’t secure his vote without it. 

Pearson says the waffling won’t impress Democratic or independent voters either.

“I think people would have more respect if he just acknowledged who he is and what he believes, but pretending not to be an election-denying tinfoil hat-wearing insurrectionist is a lie,” Pearson said. 

Chad Heywood, a former executive director of the Arizona Republican Party, isn’t so sure voters care that much.

“[In] 2022, the election issues were front and center,” Heywood said. “But it’s been almost six years since then, and voters care a lot [more] about affordability.” 

But Hobbs’ campaign is doing its best to pin the affordability crisis on the Trump administration’s economic agenda — an agenda Biggs has repeatedly voted in favor of.

“This is not a good year for Republican incumbents because they all have the stench of inflation, foreign war and just general disregard for everyday problems on them,” Pearson said. 

The “pedophile protector” narrative driven by Hobbs’ campaign and fueled by Biggs’ votes against the release of the Epstein Files, along with the Colorado City situation, might serve as those “body shots” Murray referred to. It might not be enough to clobber Biggs’ campaign, but it could contribute to an uphill battle in November.